In Gabon, robbing Peter to pay Paul?

One year after the euphoria of the putsch of August 30, 2023, ending 55 years of Bongo rule in Gabon, it is time to take stock and look ahead. In the country, there are questions about the ability of the Committee for the Transition and Restoration of Institutions (CTRI) to restore the institutions of the Republic.

At the end of the disputed 2023 elections which had given the winner the physically diminished outgoing president Ali Bongo, who was seeking a third successive term, after fourteen years at the head of the country; the coup d’état led by Brice Clothaire Oligui Nguema sounded like a deliverance.

A reason that underpinned the lavish celebration of the first year of this episode in Gabon, with a public holiday and military parades under the astonished gaze of the new strongman. Posters glorifying the new authorities in Libreville and surrounding areas.

In a speech to the nation the day before, the transitional president justified the “courageous” decision to put an end to the old regime and detailed his series of initiatives for a rapid and lasting transformation.

However, a year after the installation of the Transition Committee which promised to restore stability and prepare a new democratic era; the horizon which is emerging in Gabon leaves one perplexed.

Custom-made constitution?

The Constituent Assembly responsible for examining the future Constitution to be submitted to referendum by the end of the year is convened for a session that will last from September 12 to 22, 2024. The document that was leaked a few days earlier on social networks has sparked strong reactions regarding its content.

The project provides for a seven-year term for the president, renewable once, a presidential regime, with the elimination of the post of Prime Minister in favor of a vice-president of the government.

Its content does not leave one indifferent to its aftertaste. In particular, the eligibility criteria for the presidency of the Republic which include, for example, being of Gabonese father and mother, themselves born Gabonese, being aged between 35 and 70, having resided in Gabon during the three years preceding the election…

Wrong turn?

For some, the issue of restoring institutions has been relegated to the background. Brice Clothaire Oligui Nguema’s activism to gain the assent of his fellow citizens remains an open secret.

One of the scenes that recently caught the attention of public opinion and sparked comments is a video in which the transitional president accompanied two of his children for the resumption of classes in a school establishment, of a non-Gabonese educational system. A charm offensive, which had a hard time passing.

Within the opposition, voices are being raised about the referendum planned for the end of 2024. The draft constitution must first be evaluated by parliament, if it is validated as it stands. In response, the latter intend to campaign for a “no”, on the grounds of not being able to say “yes” to a tailor-made law, which augurs a “confident and ferocious dictatorship”.

Meanwhile, supporters of the military in power are being mobilised to campaign for a “yes” vote on the project.

Obvious signs of going off the road?

Coming in uniform, following what is presented as a “Liberation Coup” and not a “Coup d’Etat”, Brice Clothaire Oligui Nguema who benefits from a significant capital of sympathy is in a process of moulting to go from the soldier he was for decades to the professional politician. A posture that paves the way for the appetites of power as we have seen under other skies.

As soon as he reached the top of the state, he set about designating political figures who had previously opposed the Bongo camp as members of civil society, to appoint them to positions of responsibility, as well as activists who were abroad.

Today, some believe that there is no longer anyone who embodies the opposition in Gabon, the strong players having joined the CTRI camp. As for those who do not agree with the policy pursued by the new authorities, their voices are not heard.

The same causes producing the same effects; nothing guarantees to avoid a departure from the primary objectives of the putsch. Because there are signs that do not deceive.