“The world has entered a new era of navalism” January 21, 2026

Dr Sophie Quintin works at the Center for Blue Governance at the University of Portsmouth, England and is also a research associate at the Marine Center for Strategic Studies in Paris, France. Having completed his doctoral thesis on the development of the Senegalese navy, with the subject: “From gales to gray ships: a study of the development of Senegalese maritime security agency” (from the canoe to the warship: study of the institutional evolution of maritime security in Senegal), Dr Quintin analyzes, in this interview, what makes, today, the seas and oceans at the heart of the race for power.

Why have the seas and oceans become one of the main areas of rivalry between powers?

These logics of rivalry did not disappear with the end of the great ideological clashes of the 20th century; they have transformed. Even if the end of the Cold War, in 1991, inaugurated a long period of international stability, putting an end to the structuring rivalry between two ideological blocs, the antagonisms between great powers have, in reality, never completely disappeared, in Africa as elsewhere. They have mainly moved towards the economic field in the context of globalization. This long phase of peace favored the growth of international trade and reinforced the structuring role of maritime trade. Globalization has thus established itself above all as a maritime phenomenon: today, nearly 90% of world trade passes by sea and carries 99% of global data traffic (Internet, telephone), making the control of maritime communication routes a strategic issue for the survival and prosperity of States, small and large.
However, since the beginning of the 2020s, the rise in international political tensions has been accompanied by a widely shared feeling of acceleration of history with the return of conflict, particularly visible in maritime spaces. This acceleration is reflected in the emergence of open strategic rivalries between great naval powers in all areas of conflict – land, sea, air, space and cyber – restoring centrality to geopolitical and security issues, including in African maritime spaces. The multiplication of conflicts with a maritime dimension (Red Sea, Black Sea, Mediterranean), the return of war in Europe and the intensification of tensions, between NATO and Russia in particular, cannot however be attributed to a single cause, but arise from a combination of deep structural dynamics.
If experts differ as to the relative weight of each factor, they can nevertheless be grouped around four major dynamics such as analysis, Thomas Gomart, director of Ifri. First, climate change acts as a risk multiplier, affecting economic, social and security balances.

Secondly, the transformation of the economic emergence of certain States is accompanied by an explicit questioning of the international order put in place by the great powers following the Second World War. Third, the adoption of openly hostile postures by several state actors, first and foremost China and Russia, is accentuating tensions in the international system.

Finally, an arms race is once again at work, marked by a significant and continuous increase in global naval spending. The world has thus entered a new era of “navalism”.

How does control of major sea routes shape the balance of power?

Control of major sea routes is first shaped by a fundamental factor: geography and the ability of navies to project their powers. Global maritime routes are structured by the physical configuration of the planet and form a veritable spider’s web linking the major centers of production, processing and consumption. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict since 2022, then the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, starting at the end of 2023, have acted as powerful alarm signals, revealing systemic vulnerability. They recalled that this maritime web, essential to the functioning of the global economy, is structurally under tension.

Indeed, the concentration of flows in restricted spaces creates an intrinsic fragility where any localized disturbance is likely to produce global chain effects. By targeting merchant ships, the terrorist group demonstrated that a non-state actor, equipped with asymmetric military capabilities, could disrupt one of the major axes of global trade. The militarization of the area, the deployment of multinational naval operations and the circumvention of Africa via the Cape of Good Hope by commercial fleets have highlighted the direct link between the control of maritime routes and the international balance of power.

Freedom of navigation, far from being an abstract or acquired principle, thus appears to be a fragile condition, dependent on the capacity of States, local or external, to secure flows and deter disruptive actors. The deterioration of the security situation in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea has had major global repercussions for the maritime industry, the effects of which are now being felt as far away as the African Atlantic coast.

Senegal, due to its geographical positioning, is thus directly confronted with an increase in international maritime flows off its coasts. In the context of the pivot of its economic emergence towards the sea, the role of the French Navy has become decisive for security, economic prosperity and its international influence.

How is competition over marine resources redrawing the map of powers?

This competition is part of what several researchers have described as a more general context of “blue” acceleration. In a now reference article, they describe this phenomenon as the rapid, simultaneous and cumulative intensification of human uses of the oceans, whether industrial fishing, the exploitation of offshore hydrocarbons, underwater mining projects, the deployment of energy infrastructure or even the densification of maritime routes and submarine cables. The oceans thus become the theater where economic pressures, environmental transformations and power rivalries overlap.

Far from being a simple space of flow, the sea is now establishing itself as a space of strategic desires where access to resources conditions the food, energy and industrial security of States.

These global dynamics find a particularly acute resonance in the Gulf of Guinea. While maritime governance frameworks have undeniably progressed over the last decade, notably thanks to regional cooperation mechanisms, the space remains subject to growing structural pressures.

Overfishing, marine pollution and the intensification of offshore energy exploitation contribute to a strategic densification of the maritime environment. The blue acceleration in space is combined with the persistent political instability in several coastal and Sahelian states, the weakness of certain institutions and the continuity of illicit activities – illegal fishing, drug and human trafficking. Disparities in naval capabilities and implementation of state action at sea between coastal countries therefore create differentiated areas of vulnerability. These factors also modify the regional balance of power.

Does the theory of “Sea Power” remain relevant, especially with the rise in power of the polar zones?

The theory of “Sea Power” (naval power) remains highly relevant for understanding contemporary power relations, despite the profound transformations of the international system. Formulated at the end of the 19th century by Alfred Thayer Mahan, then enriched by European thinkers like Julian Corbett or Raoul Castex, it is based on a central idea: maritime power constitutes a decisive lever of the power of States in times of peace as in times of war. Its essence has lost none of its relevance. In a hyperconnected mode, the future of Senegal is therefore linked to power issues in the polar zones, in particular in the Arctic Ocean which has become a laboratory for the concept of “Sea power”.

As British academic Klaus Dodds points out, the Great North functions today as a veritable barometer of global geopolitical dynamics, revealing both the effects of climate change and the reactivation of power rivalries around access to maritime routes and resources. This reading invites us to go beyond a strictly regional approach.

The recompositions observed in high latitudes cannot be dissociated from the dynamics at work in sub-Saharan maritime spaces. The gradual opening of new Arctic routes, the securing of energy and trade flows as well as increased competition for resources directly resonate with the tensions observed in other strategic theaters. In this global maritime continuum, developments in the Arctic and those in the Atlantic appear as two facets of the same phenomenon: the reconfiguration of power relations by the sea, under the combined effect of climate change, strategic rivalry and the increased dependence of world economies on the ocean.

Reflections are shared in a personal capacity.

Interview conducted by Oumar NDIAYE and Daouda DIOUF