2026 World Cup: The Lions maintain a 72% chance of qualifying

Despite a cruel start to the tournament and two consecutive losses against France (1-3) and Norway (2-3), the Senegalese people can continue to believe in it. As the third and final day of the group stages begins this Wednesday, the road to the round of 16 is far from closed for Sadio Mané’s partners. The figures firmly believe in the destiny of the Senegal Lions.

With the increase in the World Cup to 48 participants, the situation has changed. From now on, the first two in each group as well as the eight best third-placed teams (out of twelve groups) will win their ticket to the knockout phase. This rule, combined with the scenarios of the other groups, offers a real lifeline to Senegal.

Five nations have already packed up (Haiti, Tunisia, Turkey, Jordan and Panama), but the Lions still have their destiny in their hands.

Statistics that are on fire for the Lions

If football is played on the green rectangle, the science of numbers today brings an immense wind of optimism to the hearts of Senegalese supporters.

According to the reference statistical tool Football Meets Data, the future third in Group I has a 72% chance of being among those drafted for the round of 16. France and Norway having already locked up the first two places, this jump seat of hope will be played exclusively between Senegal and Iraq.

Even more precise, the famous football data dynamicist Opta estimates Senegal’s specific chances of seeing the next round at 69.54% (or almost 70%) thanks to its supercomputer.

The simulators almost completely exclude the hypothesis of a draw between Senegal and Iraq. They predict a victory of character for the Lions. A success which would propel Senegal to 3 points and ensure an almost certain place among the best thirds of the tournament.

A “final” against Iraq

Certainly, starting a World Cup with two defeats is a difficult test. But the history of football is paved with spectacular resurrections. Despite everything, the Lions showed against Norway that they had the weapons to shake the nets. This Friday, against the Lions of Mesopotamia (Iraq), it will be a match that looks like a final. These statistics also apply to Iraqis. So, they too will give everything to be able to qualify.

Senegal must absolutely roar in this match and show why they are African champions.

Djibril DIAO