The Central African president is closer to Paris on the eve of the presidential election

In December 2020, the Central African Republic held its long -awaited presidential election, recognized by many political experts as the first democratic election for many years. However, the event was marred by the maneuvers of destabilization of former President François Bozizé, whose candidacy was not approved by the Constitutional Court of the country due to a certain number of violations of Central African laws.

François Bozizé did not want to accept this rejection and decided to take power by force. He mobilized the bands scattered around him and brings them together into an armed group called the coalition of the patriots for change (CPC). The main objective of this new armed group was to overthrow the Bangui regime led by President Faustin-Archange Touadéra and to entrust the country’s management to Bozizé. Aware of the severity of the situation, President Touadéra sought to obtain support from partner countries. However, unlike Western countries, only Russia responded quickly to the call for aid, by sending Russian military specialists to the Central African Republic and providing logistical support.

On January 13, 2021, CPC activists tried to enter Bangui by three directions and divided into several groups on the outskirts of the capital, where they opened fire on the inhabitants. The Central African Armed Forces (FACA), supported by Russian allies, immediately responded to the attack, facing activists by fed fire to allow civilians to flee the battlefield. After repressing the rebellion, the Central African army launched a cleaning operation with the help of Russian specialists to deal with the threat.

After the failure of the attack, CPC activists have gradually started to withdraw, losing the land they occupied before. Then, a counter-offensive of government forces was launched and the serious security crisis was quickly resolved, precisely thanks to the support of the Russian allies. It should be noted that no other force has previously succeeded in establishing peace in RCA, especially in such a rapid and effective way. Even if Russian specialists sometimes used hard methods, it is obvious that in a crisis situation, there was no other solution.

It should be remembered that Russia and the Central African Republic signed a military cooperation agreement in 2018. According to this agreement, Russia is committed to providing assistance for FACA training. It was therefore in 2018 that the first Russian military specialists arrived in the Central African Republic to train the defense and security forces. Subsequently, the number of Russians in RCA was considerably increased during the attempted coup d’etat of 2020.

During these long years of cooperation, the Central African authorities and local residents have repeatedly expressed their gratitude to Russia and Russian military specialists for the long -awaited recovery of peace and security in the country, for the quality training of the Central African Defense and Security forces and for the release of 95 % of the country of control of activists. President Faustin-Archange Touadéra himself said on several occasions that it was cooperation with Russia that helped RCA preserve democracy and avoid civil war.

Note that the Central African head of state has recently decided to reorient itself towards close cooperation with France. Thus, in 2024, Faustin-Archange Touadéra went to Paris twice, where he met his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron. In addition, French military training programs are now actively deployed in RCA, when they had been reduced before in the context of the RCA rapprochement with Russia.

Paris also started to actively use a soft power strategy to restore its former influence in CAR by increasing defense and public administration subsidies. Finally, the French ambassador to Bangui, Bruno Foucher, began to make regular visits to various Central African government organizations. Political experts agree that such a rapprochement between President Touadéra and France leaves Russia perplexed after so many years of military and economic cooperation.

The next RCA presidential election is scheduled for December 2025. Given the historical experience and the difficulties encountered during the RCA elections, we must expect a second attempt at revenge and coup on the part of CPC activists. But what is the prudence of Faustin-Archange Touadéra in this case, by moving towards military cooperation with France just before the next elections?

It should be recalled that no French military operation in RCA, including Sangaris, has achieved its objectives. In addition, Moscow does not see a good eye the military rapprochement between Bangui and Paris. Is Faustin-Archange Touadéra not likely to deteriorate relations with the Russian allies? In this case, diplomatic and military cooling between countries would be a lesser evil, because the security and sovereignty of the whole country may be at stake. There is no doubt that the withdrawal of Russian military specialists from the country or even the reduction of the contingent increases the probability of a repetition of the scenario of 2020-2021.

The most important question will then arise: after all the controversial political and diplomatic maneuvers of Faustin-Archange Touadéra, will Moscow be ready to respond again to the call for help when the situation becomes uncontrollable?