Succession of Guterres at the UN: Macky Sall in the race, Grynspan takes the advantage

The race to succeed António Guterres reaches a new stage. On Tuesday September 29, 2026, the United Nations Security Council organized its fourth “straw poll”, an indicative and confidential ballot intended to measure the level of support available to candidates for the post of Secretary General. If no definitive choice has yet been made, this new round confirms the progress of Rebeca Grynspan and leaves Macky Sall in an unchanged position.

According to the results compiled from several diplomatic sources, the former Senegalese president obtained five favorable votes (“encourages”), nine unfavorable (“discourages”) and one without opinion. A result identical to that recorded during the third round, on September 18. Macky Sall thus maintains his level of support, but is unable, for the moment, to reduce the number of members of the Security Council opposed to his candidacy.

Grynspan confirms his progress

Conversely, Rebeca Grynspan strengthens her position. The Costa Rican candidate received ten votes in favor, three against and two without an opinion. She thus gains support compared to the previous round and reduces her level of opposition by two votes. It also finds the symbolic threshold of ten supports reached during the first “straw poll” in July.

Behind her, the Guyanese candidate Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett and the Argentinian Rafael Grossi each obtained eight favorable votes. Grossi notably made significant progress compared to the third round, during which he only received five supports. Olara Otunnu obtains five favorable votes, like Macky Sall. María Fernanda Espinosa receives two supports and Ivonne A-Baki only one.

However, these results do not constitute an official ranking or a designation vote. The straw poll takes place behind closed doors and its results are not officially published by the Security Council. They are communicated to the candidates through the permanent representatives of the States which presented them.

A race still open

The fourth round therefore does not yet make it possible to identify a definitive candidate. Council members must continue their consultations before consensus can emerge. The challenge will be in particular to determine whether the support available to the various candidates can be transformed into a majority during a formal vote.

The procedure has an additional difficulty: the candidate ultimately recommended by the Council must obtain at least nine votes in favor and not be vetoed by one of the five permanent members – the United States, China, Russia, France and the United Kingdom. The Council will then transmit its recommendation to the General Assembly, which will be called to make the appointment.

The next round is expected to take place in October. The discussions could then evolve into consultations making it possible to distinguish the positions of the five permanent members from those of the ten elected members of the Council.

At this point, Rebeca Grynspan has the top spot in the fourth poll, while Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett and Rafael Grossi remain in position as strong contenders. For Macky Sall, the next challenge will be to transform the upcoming consultations into new support and reduce the number of unfavorable positions that accompany his candidacy.