CAN 2027: two victories against Sudan and Senegal almost qualified

Senegal could take a big step towards qualifying for CAN 2027 (June 19 to July 18) in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, by winning their next two matches against Sudan.

With six additional points, the Lions would bring their total to 10 points and would find themselves in a very favorable position two days before the end of the qualifiers. If qualification would not yet be mathematically acquired in all configurations, calculations show that it would be almost assured.

In the event of victory in the two confrontations against Sudan, scheduled for the 3rd and 4th days, Senegal would have 10 points, compared to only 3 for its opponent. With two games still to play, the Sudanese could reach a maximum of 9 points. They would therefore be definitively left behind by the Lions, who, ironically with the calendar, will then have two home matches against Ethiopia and Mozambique to finish the qualifiers for this CAN 2027.

The real unknown would then concern the remote duel between Mozambique and Ethiopia, the two other teams in the group. Their double confrontation, scheduled for the 3rd and 4th days, could weigh heavily in the race for the first two places, the only qualifiers for the final phase.

The different scenarios give Senegal a considerable advantage. If Mozambique wins its two matches against Ethiopia, the latter will no longer be able to reach the Lions’ 10 points. The same situation would arise if the Mozambicans signed a victory and a draw, or if the two teams shared the points twice. In these configurations, Senegal would be mathematically qualified.

Just one point to lock in qualification

Two scenarios would, however, maintain a slight suspense. If Ethiopia were to win one match and draw, or if they won both matches, they could still reach 10 or 12 points respectively. But to deny the Lions a top-two finish, Mozambique would then need to top their tally as well. A hypothesis which would notably imply two Senegalese defeats in recent days.

Senegal could, however, save themselves any calculations by taking at least one point in their last two outings. With 11 points on the clock, Patrick Vieira’s men would be assured of finishing in the top two places, whatever the result of the double confrontation between Mozambique and Ethiopia.

The calendar works in favor of the Lions who will host Mozambique in Dakar on the 5th day, before receiving Ethiopia on the 6th and final day, in March 2027. Only one point to take in Dakar failing to make a success.

In other words, six points against Sudan would place the Lions on the threshold of qualification. An additional draw would then be enough to transform this beautiful prospect into mathematical certainty.

Sheikh Gora DIOP